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Predicting the Final Score of Ravens vs. Patriots In Divisional Round

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By @calling_allfans

Patriots vs. Ravens

Mitch Stringer-USA TODAY Sports

After the Baltimore Ravens defeated the Pittsburgh Steelers 30-17 on Saturday, one Divisional Round matchup was set. QB Joe Flacco and the rest of the Ravens would be playing the New England Patriots at Gillette Stadium on Saturday, Jan. 10 at 4:35 p.m. ET on NBC.

Of the four teams that competed in the AFC Wild Card games, the team the Patriots least wanted to host was the Ravens. Many Patriots fans may not admit this out loud, but the Steelers heading to Denver and the Patriots hosting the Indianapolis Colts (who defeated the Cincinnati Bengals) would have been much more preferable.

But that’s the matchup New England has drawn, and Patriots fans are wondering if this will be a repeat of the 2009 AFC Wild Card Game (Ravens 33, Patriots 14) or 2012 AFC Championship Game (Ravens 28, Patriots 13). Plus, both Patriots and Ravens fans remember Ravens PK Billy Cundiff hooking a 32-yard field goal attempt left of the uprights with 15 seconds remaining in the game with New England leading 23-20.

There is some carryover of players on both teams from the recent meetings, but there have also been a lot of changes on both sides. Do the Patriots have what it takes to vanquish this familiar, and tough playoff foe this season?

Baltimore may be New England’s toughest opponent left in the AFC, but if the Ravens want to win, they’ll have to figure out how to cover TE Rob Gronkowski, who missed the 2012 AFC Championship game with an injury. Gronk is a nightmare of a matchup for almost every opposing defense, and this season was no different, as he amassed 1,124 receiving yards on 82 receptions and found the end zone 12 times, never fumbling the football.

The Ravens may have one of the better defensive fronts in the NFL right now, but their secondary (ranked 23rd against the pass) is banged up, and they are far from performing at a high level right now. Tom Brady will be looking Gronk’s way early and often to take advantage of Baltimore’s less-than-stellar defensive backfield.

Even if the Ravens double team him, Gronk could still have a big day, or Brady will find other receivers in one-on-one coverage and take advantage. No matter what, a healthy Gronk will help the Patriots against a physical Baltimore defense.

The Patriots defense, particularly the secondary with Darrelle Revis, is much improved from the 2012 AFC Championship game. It’s probably safe to assume that Revis will draw Steve Smith Sr., and Brandon Browner and Devin McCourty will work together to take care of Torrey Smith. The Patriots also have one of the better LBs in the NFL in Jamie Collins, who can help get pressure on the Ravens QB.

That being said, the Ravens are a really good team and Flacco’s playoff winning percentage is currently higher than Brady’s. Does that mean Flacco is better than Brady? Does that mean that Flacco is the best QB in football, as his coach John Harbaugh believes? No, but it does mean that Flacco knows he can play at a high level in the playoffs. Plus, he’s won at Gillette in the postseason, so he won’t be even the slightest bit scared to play the Patriots on the road.

While Flacco is great, especially in the playoffs, Brady is better. With a win on Saturday, Brady  would again have a better playoff win percentage than Flacco, with a larger sample size. The Patriots also have the advantage in scoring. They averaged 29.3 points per game this season (fourth) while Baltimore averaged 25.6 (eighth). After beating the Detroit Lions, who gave up only 17.6 points per game (third), by a score of 34-9, New England knows they can score on good, tough defenses.

Bill Belichick and the players know it won’t be easy, but the Patriots certainly have the personnel to advance to the AFC Championship game for the fourth straight season.

Prediction: Patriots 30, Ravens 27

Justin Patrick is a New England Patriots writer for www.RantSports.com. Follow him on Twitter @calling_allfans, like him on Facebook and add him to your network on Google. You can also email him at [email protected]

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