It’s only February, but right now things appear to breaking in the New York Jets‘ favor for the 2015 NFL Draft. There’s a long way to go, but early indications are that Oregon quarterback Marcus Mariota will be on the board when the Jets pick at No. 6 overall. Mariota could be the franchise quarterback the Jets have been searching for since the days of Joe Namath, but they are not the only team interested in him.
The Philadelphia Eagles, led by former Oregon coach Chip Kelly, are well known to covet Mariota. The Eagles already have Nick Foles, but they see Mariota as the perfect fit for them. However, he would never make it to the No. 20 pick, meaning a blockbuster trade would be needed. Manish Mehta of the New York Daily News argued that the Jets should take a deal from the Eagles that involves multiple picks and Foles being swapped for No. 6 overall.
Would the Jets really be interested in such a massive trade? And should they be? Let’s break it down.
We’ll use the famed draft value trade chart created by Jimmy Johnson to get an idea of what this pick is worth. The Jets’ No. 6 pick has 1600 points of value, while the Eagles No. 20 pick has 850 and their 2015 second rounder has 380. That leaves the Eagles needing to make up 370 points of value. Foles would cover that gap as a 26 year old QB with a solid track record of NFL success and one season left on his rookie contract.
That being said, this chart is not gospel to every team, and value is in the eye of the beholder. The Jets would obviously want to push the Eagles for all they’re worth, especially given that they haven’t exactly been subtle about wanting Mariota. When the Washington Redskins moved up to draft Robert Griffin III, they surrendered three first round picks and a second rounder to go from No. 6 to No. 2.
The Jets would obviously take a Godfather offer like that, but that isn’t likely. The way that trade blew up in the Redskins’ face will be a factor in anyone’s thought process looking to make a similar deal. Mehta suggests the Eagles give up both their first and second round picks this year and next year for No. 6 overall, an unlikely scenario that I imagine Mike Maccagnan would happily accept.
A more likely scenario is the deal that involves Foles, who would be the best quarterback the Jets have had in years. The Jets would probably then draft a cornerback at No. 20 and would have two second round picks to take some combination of a receiver, pass rusher, and offensive lineman.
Whether or not such a deal is appealing to the Jets comes down to this: what value do you place on Mariota? Mariota posted video game numbers in college, is a proven winner with high character, and has the athletic tools to become a special player. That being said, his performance against Ohio State took a lot of the shine off him, and there are some questions about his accuracy and mechanics, especially his footwork.
It is fair to say that Mariota has more value to the Eagles than any other team and would most likely be more successful in Philly than anywhere else. It is also fair to say that at this point in time Foles is safer than Mariota for the Jets. However, Mariota obviously has higher upside.
If I was the GM and the Eagles offered Foles and this year’s first and second round picks, I would take it. Foles is a massive upgrade at quarterback who could be a long term solution. The draft picks are not mind blowing compensation for the No. 6 pick, but in this scenario the Jets could walk away with a new quarterback and at least three Day 1 starters from the draft. The Jets actually have a solid roster that is dragged down by problems at quarterback and corner. A trade such as this one could immediately fix both areas, giving the Jets the opportunity to be a playoff contender next season.
This is all hypothetical at this point, and who knows what will happen in the coming months. However, if the Eagles call with a big offer on draft day, the Jets should take it.
Greg Sulik is a New York Jets writer for Rant Sports. Follow him on Twitter @GregSulik or add him to your network on Google
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