Derick E. Hingle-USA TODAY Sports
There are really just three running backs worth signing to large and lengthy deals: DeMarco Murray, Le’Veon Bell, and Marshawn Lynch. Outside of that group, and especially with Mark Ingram, it’s best to find an equivalent running back on the cheap; something the New Orleans Saints should have done during the upcoming NFL Draft.
According to overthecap.com, Ingram’s four-year, $16 million deal would currently make him the NFL’s 12th-highest paid running back. Obviously, his standing will fluctuate, but the point is that Ingram is nowhere near “middle of the pack” when it comes to talent or production.
It’s rarely wise to use past performance to predict future results, but in a violent position where decline is almost constant after early-career prime, applying this principle to an NFL running back is at least a decent indicator of expected value.
Ingram rushed for 964 yards on 226 carries last year. This netted the Saints’ running back 4.3 yards per carry, and each of these quantities ranked Ingram 14th, 11th, and 20th in the league respectively. I’m not sure if those are numbers that equate to added years on a contract, especially considering that Ingram rushed for only 988 yards over 2012 and 2013 combined. Given that last season was a contract year, Ingram’s 2014 ledger can’t help but look dubious.
A carbon copy of last season’s output might be worth $4 million for 2015, but what about the three seasons after that? A back that barely averages four yards per carry would break down trying to meet these lofty goals implied by the deal.
It would be nice to see if the Saints know something that we don’t, but with New Orleans’ already intense cap troubles, it’s tough to prognosticate the upside to this decision. Like Ingram attempting to cut turf on worn wheels, we’ll just have to see how this situation plays out.
Jerry Landry is a writer for www.RantSports.com. Follow Jerry on Twitter at @Jerry2Landry, “Like” him on Facebook or add him on Google.
