Talent evaluation is one of the most important aspects of building an NFL team and so often teams get it wrong. If they think any of these 15 players, all of whom are projected to be drafted in the first three rounds, are sure bets, they’re sorely mistaken. In fact, all of the players on this list are at serious risk of being busts.
15. DE DeForest Buckner - Oregon
Kirby Lee, USA Today Sports
Buckner is big and athletic, but has to work on his moves in the trenches. Guys like him are projected as top picks because of their size and athleticism, but some technical aspects of the game are overlooked in these cases. Buckner can still be a dominant defensive player in the NFL, but teams need to realize he has more work to do than it appears.
Buckner is big and athletic, but has to work on his moves in the trenches. Guys like him are projected as top picks because of their size and athleticism, but some technical aspects of the game are overlooked in these cases. Buckner can still be a dominant defensive player in the NFL, but teams need to realize he has more work to do than it appears.
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14. DT Adolphus Washington - Ohio State
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There have been character issues raised about Washington recently and that's not something NFL teams take lightly. If they think he's going to be a problem off the field, it might not be worth having him on the field. His measurables are great, but it remains to be seen how well he can rush the passer at the next level.
There have been character issues raised about Washington recently and that's not something NFL teams take lightly. If they think he's going to be a problem off the field, it might not be worth having him on the field. His measurables are great, but it remains to be seen how well he can rush the passer at the next level.
13. CB Kendall Fuller - Virginia Tech
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With his injury history and lack of experience, it's hard to call Fuller one of the top defensive backs in this year's class. Football talent runs in the family as two of his brothers already play in the league, but he has a long way to go before becoming a top corner in the NFL. If he stays healthy and gets more physical, he can reach his potential.
With his injury history and lack of experience, it's hard to call Fuller one of the top defensive backs in this year's class. Football talent runs in the family as two of his brothers already play in the league, but he has a long way to go before becoming a top corner in the NFL. If he stays healthy and gets more physical, he can reach his potential.
12. RB Devontae Booker - Utah
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Backs with Booker's size don't often succeed as every-down backs in the NFL, although there are some exceptions. He's a hard runner and hits the hole as quickly as any collegiate running back, but his size has to be a bit of a concern for any team looking for a primary running back. Based on his skillset, he seems better suited as a change-of-pace back.
Backs with Booker's size don't often succeed as every-down backs in the NFL, although there are some exceptions. He's a hard runner and hits the hole as quickly as any collegiate running back, but his size has to be a bit of a concern for any team looking for a primary running back. Based on his skillset, he seems better suited as a change-of-pace back.
11. QB Paxton Lynch - Memphis
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Lynch's measurables and mechanics are great, which is why he's the top-rated quarterback on most draft big boards. However, his sample size of success isn't big enough to trust him to become a franchise quarterback. There will be a desperate team that takes him in the top 10, but he shouldn't be projected so high.
Lynch's measurables and mechanics are great, which is why he's the top-rated quarterback on most draft big boards. However, his sample size of success isn't big enough to trust him to become a franchise quarterback. There will be a desperate team that takes him in the top 10, but he shouldn't be projected so high.
10. OT Jason Spriggs - Indiana
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Spriggs certainly looks like a legit offensive lineman at the next level, but playing against defensive lines of the Big Ten, it can't be said how well prepared he is for the leap to the NFL. Had he been opposing more elite defensive athletes in a conference like the SEC and had the same results, then he'd be more proven. Any team drafting him early on is taking a huge risk.
Spriggs certainly looks like a legit offensive lineman at the next level, but playing against defensive lines of the Big Ten, it can't be said how well prepared he is for the leap to the NFL. Had he been opposing more elite defensive athletes in a conference like the SEC and had the same results, then he'd be more proven. Any team drafting him early on is taking a huge risk.
9. WR Josh Doctson - TCU
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If Doctson stays healthy, he can be a superstar in the NFL. However, he has proven to be frail from time to time, so he's not worth a first-round pick. His hands are among the best at the collegiate level, but his route running could stand to improve. If he shows improved route running at the combine, he could be justified as a late first-round pick.
If Doctson stays healthy, he can be a superstar in the NFL. However, he has proven to be frail from time to time, so he's not worth a first-round pick. His hands are among the best at the collegiate level, but his route running could stand to improve. If he shows improved route running at the combine, he could be justified as a late first-round pick.
8. QB Dak Prescott - Mississippi State
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Prescott has been one of the most dominant collegiate quarterbacks in recent memory, but there are serious question marks about how he projects in the NFL. Linebackers in the league will be more capable of running him down in open space, which will take away from his running game a bit. That means his pocket passing ability will be tested early and often.
Prescott has been one of the most dominant collegiate quarterbacks in recent memory, but there are serious question marks about how he projects in the NFL. Linebackers in the league will be more capable of running him down in open space, which will take away from his running game a bit. That means his pocket passing ability will be tested early and often.
7. ILB Scooby Wright III - Arizona
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Wright was one of the elite defenders in college football last season, but he was oft-injured this season, which should be concerning. Also concerning is his size at 6-foot-1 and 190 pounds at an inside linebacker spot. That's tiny by NFL standards and he's going to have to either bulk up or move to an outside linebacker spot.
Wright was one of the elite defenders in college football last season, but he was oft-injured this season, which should be concerning. Also concerning is his size at 6-foot-1 and 190 pounds at an inside linebacker spot. That's tiny by NFL standards and he's going to have to either bulk up or move to an outside linebacker spot.
6. QB Jared Goff - California
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Goff is a lanky quarterback who had another great season this year, but he still shouldn't be viewed as a top prospect in this year's class. His pocket presence is not perfect and his arm strength could stand to improve. Basically, he's rough around the edges and shouldn't be a projected top 15 pick.
Goff is a lanky quarterback who had another great season this year, but he still shouldn't be viewed as a top prospect in this year's class. His pocket presence is not perfect and his arm strength could stand to improve. Basically, he's rough around the edges and shouldn't be a projected top 15 pick.
5. DT Robert Nkemdiche - Ole Miss
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Nkemdiche has had his character called into question after a drug incident last month and that could hurt his draft stock. However, he's an absolute freak athlete. As we've seen before in elite pass rushers, though, injuries can happen. It happened to Jadaveon Clowney a couple years ago and it could happen to Nkemdiche. Fair or not, teams should be keeping that in mind.
Nkemdiche has had his character called into question after a drug incident last month and that could hurt his draft stock. However, he's an absolute freak athlete. As we've seen before in elite pass rushers, though, injuries can happen. It happened to Jadaveon Clowney a couple years ago and it could happen to Nkemdiche. Fair or not, teams should be keeping that in mind.
4. WR Pharoh Cooper - South Carolina
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Cooper's numbers look great, but he was also one of South Carolina's only legitimate offensive threats the last couple seasons. That certainly made him look a lot better. While his talent is undeniable, Cooper hasn't proven to be able to go up and win jump balls with consistency. Get the ball to him in space, though, and he's off to the races. If a team can find creative ways to get him involved in their offense, he could be worthy of a second-round pick.
Cooper's numbers look great, but he was also one of South Carolina's only legitimate offensive threats the last couple seasons. That certainly made him look a lot better. While his talent is undeniable, Cooper hasn't proven to be able to go up and win jump balls with consistency. Get the ball to him in space, though, and he's off to the races. If a team can find creative ways to get him involved in their offense, he could be worthy of a second-round pick.
3. QB Cardale Jones - Ohio State
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Jones should have come out of school last year because he likely would have been a second or third-round pick. This season, though, he was benched and many of his shortcomings were magnified. Teams should see a solid quarterback who can develop into a starter within a couple years. Guys like that should go in the third and fourth rounds.
Jones should have come out of school last year because he likely would have been a second or third-round pick. This season, though, he was benched and many of his shortcomings were magnified. Teams should see a solid quarterback who can develop into a starter within a couple years. Guys like that should go in the third and fourth rounds.
2. DE Shawn Oakman - Baylor
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Oaken has freakish size at 6-foot-9 and 280 pounds, but his technique has more than a little work needed. With his size and athleticism, he should be blowing up plays more often, but he misses out on plays like that because he lacks a burst. He looks like a prototypical dominant defensive player, but teams should expect him to merely be a solid rotational defensive lineman in the NFL.
Oaken has freakish size at 6-foot-9 and 280 pounds, but his technique has more than a little work needed. With his size and athleticism, he should be blowing up plays more often, but he misses out on plays like that because he lacks a burst. He looks like a prototypical dominant defensive player, but teams should expect him to merely be a solid rotational defensive lineman in the NFL.
1. RB Derrick Henry - Alabama
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Henry's college career is scarily similar to Trent Richardson. Of course, Richardson's NFL career hasn't been so great. Henry lacks a burst that separates good NFL running backs from great ones and that's ultimately what keeps him from being anything more than an average back. With bigger and faster defenders at the next level, his problems will be exposed from his first carry and on.
Henry's college career is scarily similar to Trent Richardson. Of course, Richardson's NFL career hasn't been so great. Henry lacks a burst that separates good NFL running backs from great ones and that's ultimately what keeps him from being anything more than an average back. With bigger and faster defenders at the next level, his problems will be exposed from his first carry and on.
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