With Peyton Manning officially headed off to life after football, the Denver Broncos’ path seems pretty clear. They have to get Brock Osweiler back on a new contract and they have to start ramping up for another Super Bowl run. For as many parts as the Broncos will have to replace soon, there is no doubt that Osweiler is the biggest piece to the puzzle.
It’s surprising to me that the Broncos are wasting time with their contract offers to him.
First it was reported that Denver offered him around $12 million per year. Then it went up to $15 million over three years. Granted, it all comes down to what the guaranteed money is, but with these offers Denver is playing a dangerous game.
Now that Manning is gone, Osweiler is the slam dunk starter in Denver, and you can take it to the bank that Osweiler has all the leverage. Not only is the team compromised if he bails in free agency, Denver is far outside the range to draft a quarterback and the free agent market is pretty weak. And not only did they draft him in the second round not long ago, they benched Manning for him and continued to do well enough to be competitive.
If Denver is coming to the table with numbers like $15 million for Osweiler, of course he’s going to test the market. It isn’t hard to beat $15 million as a quarterback, whether that’s his market value or not. All he needs is one offer.
Osweiler might be worth $15 million on the open market, but to Denver he’s worth far more than that. What is fair and what is reality aren’t always the same thing, and I think if Denver keeps trying to hammer $15 million per year down his throat, Osweiler may very well hit the open market. And at that point, all bets are off. The last thing the Broncos need is to get into an avoidable bidding war with an equally desperate team looking to fill their starting quarterback spot.
Denver is in big trouble without Osweiler, and avoiding that situation is worth the few millions more per year it could take to lock him up. They would be smart to toss a bigger contract at him and then figure out how to make it work after the fact. They would be right back in the Super Bowl discussion with Osweiler, but without him the window could be slammed shut.
