At this point it seems pretty certain the San Francisco 49ers are willing to trade Colin Kaepernick to the Denver Broncos, who so badly need a starter it’s almost not funny. It seems pretty certain both teams have agreed on the compensation to make the trade happen.
What also seems certain is Kaepernick won’t take a pay cut to make it happen, and it’s the smartest move he could make.
By refusing to adjust his contract, Kaepernick wins no matter what the outcome is. If he stays in San Francisco, he’s due so much guaranteed money it almost forces Chip Kelly to start him. And seeing how generous Kelly’s offense can be to his offensive pieces, having the ability to ensure your starting spot on his team isn’t a bad spot to be in.
Sticking with his money also forces the 49ers to either keep him or cut him. The possibility that gets lost in this whole fiasco is that maybe, just maybe, Kaepernick doesn’t want to play in Denver. Or if he could see his way clear to playing there, maybe his $11.9 million salary would be enough to make him happy. But if the reports are true that Denver wants Kaepernick to shave $5 million off and play for $7 million, that’s a different story.
But the real beauty is that if the 49ers do cut Kaepernick, he easily becomes the best free agent quarterback available. He can leverage that into a contract elsewhere, which he’d absolutely get, for much more than $7 million yearly. Taking a pay cut to play for Denver, a team that took a nasty hit in free agency, doesn’t really compare to banking on your ability to get $11.9 million from the 49ers or getting it in free agency.
It may seem like Kaepernick is stupidly passing up a chance to play with the defending champions, but he’s being really smart. He’s being $5 million smart at minimum, if not more if the 49ers cut him.