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New York Rangers defenseman Dan Girardi has been a whipping boy for bloggers and diehard Rangers fans for a long time. From their end, his defensive shortcomings are well-documented. Now, the rampant criticism both factions have screamed at the top of their lungs for years has gone mainstream. Prominent hockey writers from Yahoo Sports all the way to TSN are presenting alarming facts about Girardi’s game. With the playoffs just around the corner, the time has come for head coach Alain Vigneault to make the right decision and bench Girardi for rookie Dylan McIlrath when he returns from a knee injury.
Not only is it imperative for the Rangers in the short term, but if they are truly to make a deep playoff run, it may be the most important move they can possibly make.
Girardi has been a stalwart on the Rangers’ blue line for the last five years. He worked his way up from the bottom of the barrel as an undrafted free agent to reach the Rangers’ top defensive pair during their recent run of success. His willingness to block shots and sacrifice himself for the betterment of the team is admirable. No one has ever questioned his heart or work ethic. Did he earn the six-year, $33 million contract the Rangers gave him in 2014? He absolutely did.
Right now, this is not about dollars and cents, though. It’s about how Girardi is performing, and he is not performing well. Despite an excellent February, Girardi is once again showing the form that has made him arguably the worst defenseman in the NHL, with historically bad numbers to back it up.
In a recent article, Ryan Lambert of Yahoo Sports called Girardi’s play “an embarrassment”. This may be putting it kindly. Lambert cited examples of Girardi’s performance, such as a minus-773 shot attempt differential or 46.6 percent since the 2013 lockout. During the same span, the rest of the team has a shot attempt differential of 51.6 percent when Girardi isn’t on the ice. In an article by Travis Yost of TSN, he posts an absolutely disturbing graph charting the Rangers’ five-on-five possession numbers with and without Girardi. When Girardi is on the ice, more than half the roster’s Corsi percentage drops significantly. The worst drop-off of all is that of longtime defensive partner Ryan McDonagh. When not on the ice with Girardi, McDonagh’s Corsi percentage is close to 55 percent. While on the ice with Girardi, it is a little over 41 percent. You do the math.
And if you choose to ignore advanced stats, take a look at his performance last week against the Anaheim Ducks. In one shift, Girardi committed four turnovers in 33 seconds. What’s worse is that these types of turnovers and defensive lapses are frequent. You don’t need a Corsi expert, stat geek or even a fourth-grade math teacher to tell you how bad that is.
Simply put, Vigneault cannot trust Girardi with critical minutes going forward. He either has to pair Kevin Klein with McDonagh permanently, or trust McIlrath or Keith Yandle with high-pressure situations. It’s very likely Vigneault will keep Girardi in the lineup regardless, but such a decision would not benefit his team at all.
If Girardi does play, will he sacrifice his body to block shots and grind out every single shift? Yes.
But don’t be surprised if he causes a turnover that costs the Rangers a game, or worse a series.
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