The Philadelphia Phillies enter the offseason with five key free agents, plus a handful more of backup and reserve players who may or may not return to the city. In this article, I will explore the players who are free agents and the chance they return to the Phillies.
Jimmy Rollins: Rollins has only ever know the city of Philadelphia, and he has made it very clear that A) he would like to come back B) he is NOT going to take a hometown discount and C) he wants a five-year deal.
Rollins is 32 years old and although he’s still one of the top seven or so shortstops in the league, he wants a contract deal that will pay him for seasons in which he is 33, 34, 35, 36, and 37 years old. Rollins is the second best free agent on the market, behind Jose Reyes, so he will likely garner some interest from teams should the Phillies decide five years is too much to offer.
My Prediction: Rollins comes back on a four-year deal. The Phillies don’t have a suitable replacement (Freddy Galvis just isn’t ready) and Rollins is still a multidimensional threat who can hit for power, run, and play Gold Glove defense, plus he’s been the face of the team for the last decade.
Ryan Madson: Madson’s year was everything a free agent could dream to have. He entered the season as a setup man and ended as one of the game’s elite closers, going 32 for 34 in saves during the regular season with a 2.37 ERA. Madson has been a valuable piece of the Phillies bullpen for the last five years, but his agent is Scott Boras – the guy who got Alex Rodriguez the $275 million deal – and Madson is going to want to be paid like the top-notch closer he is.
My Prediction: Madson doesn’t come back. I would be surprised if he does, simply because the Phillies will probably need to pay him around $50 million over five years. There are some talented closers on the market – Heath Bell and Jonathan Papelbon, to name two – but I think the Phillies may go with a closer by committee type of bullpen. Antonio Bastardo did fine as a closer this year and Michael Stutes may get some work. Having one lights out closer is overrated; having several very solid relief pitchers is underrated.
Raul Ibanez: Ibanez signed a three-year, $31.5 million contract before the 2009 season with the goal of replacing Pat Burrell in left field. He did a fine job his first two years, although he slipped off this year both at the plate and in the field. Ibanez has had a very productive career, and even if he wasn’t in the final year of his contract this year, he wouldn’t come back in 2012 as a starter.
My Prediction: See ya. Ibanez won’t be back, unless by some chance he and the Phillies agree to a one-year deal for about $1 million to serve solely as a left-handed bat off the bench. It wouldn’t surprise me at all if Ibanez retires this offseason. He’s had a great career and he’s nearly 40 years old. If he does play, expect it to be with an American League team so he doesn’t have to play the field.
Roy Oswalt: Oswalt struggled this year, first with back problems, then with off-the-field family issues, and then some more with back problems. He ended the year as a pretty capable starter, but his option next year is for $16 million. That’s a lot of money to pay for a fourth starter.
My Prediction: No way Oswalt returns to Philly. His contract has a $2 million buyout, so the only plausible way Oswalt would be back would if the Phillies bought out his contract and then issued him a new one. Either way, I think he has pitched his last game with the Phillies.
Brad Lidge: No one has had as much of an up-and-down career as Brad Lidge. He was perfect in his first season, bringing a World Series championship and suffered through the worst season by a closer in history in his sophomore year. He followed that up with quietly productive years in 2010 and 2011, although he was oft-injured during that span.
Lidge was extremely successful down the stretch this year, but like Oswalt, his contract has a $16 million option for next season. That’s way too much to pay for a relief pitcher, especially because Lidge isn’t even a closer anymore.
My Prediction: Lidge very likely won’t be back. He has suffered through numerous injuries in Philly and he will be 35 years old next season. He will likely find a home somewhere for maybe a two-year deal as a setup man.
Ross Gload: Gload signed a two-year deal as a reserve first baseman and left-handed bat off the bench, a deal that expired after this past season. He was productive in his first season as one of the league’s better pinch hitters, but this year his play dropped off enormously due mainly to a sports hernia injury that plagued him for much of the season.
My Prediction: Gload was fortunate to even last through all of this past season without being released, and at age 35, I don’t think he will come back to Philly. He may have to sign a minor-league deal somewhere to even play ball still.
Brian Schneider: Schneider hit just .176 this past year with a .502 OPS, both the lowest marks of his 12-year career. He is renowned for his ability to handle the pitching staff but the Phillies can’t afford to have their backup perform as poorly at the plate as Schneider did this past season.
My Prediction: Schneider may be back, but probably at just a one-year deal. He is said to be even better at receiving the ball than Carlos Ruiz, and he is a serviceable veteran.
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I have to disagree with you on Madson’s replacement(s). I don’t think there is anyway Amaro lets Bastardo and Stutes take over the reigns for a closer role quite yet. Definitely not if they plan on competing for the WS again. Amaro has to go out and pick up a veteran closer and possibly another veteran reliever too. I definitely agree with you on every other player. Oswalt will be bought out and will have some discussion on a return if the price is right for the Phils.