David Herndon: How Will the Philadelphia Phillies Relief Pitcher Fit Into the Team’s Plans for the Future?
Last year, David Herndon compiled a 3.32 ERA in 57 major league innings, a surprisingly impressive mark for the 26-year old relief pitcher.
Herndon was left off the Philadelphia Phillies’ postseason roster, and he will have to fight for a spot on the 2012 25-man Opening Day roster. Herndon’s peripheral statistics suggest he really wasn’t that good in ’11 – he posted a high walk rate (3.8 BB/9), mediocre strikeout rate (6.2 K/9), a poor win-loss record (1-4), and a FIP of 5.08 which suggests that he was incredibly fortunate to finish with an ERA as low as he did.
Herndon’s numbers weren’t helped by a ridiculous 69-pitch outing, one in which he came into the game in relief and walked seven batters (five of them intentional) in 3.2 innings. The day before that, Herndon gave up three home runs in a single inning. Take away those two appearances and his numbers would be significantly better. The reality though is that those happened, so they can’t be taken away.
Herndon is a lot like Kyle Kendrick. He’s not going to blow batters away with a 95 MPH fastball; rather he relies on pitching to contact and hoping for ground ball outs. He’s an innings-eater, a guy who won’t really pitch with a one-run lead against the Atlanta Braves in September, but more an arm the team can pitch simply to have a guy pitch. Bill James’ 2012 projection for Herndon sees him posting a 4.65 ERA. If he pitches like that, he certainly won’t be given many opportunities. Herndon is already fighting for a spot on the initial roster.
Jonathan Papelbon, Kyle Kendrick, Antonio Bastardo, Jose Contreras, and Chad Qualls are all but locks (assuming healthy). Dontrelle Willis is likely to make the team, especially since Contreras may not be healthy. That leaves Herndon fighting for a spot among players such as Michael Schwimer, Phillipe Aumont, Justin De Fratus, Joe Savery, Joel Pineiro, Dave Bush, and Brian Sanches.
If Herndon doesn’t make the roster, he’ll likely be called up as soon as there is an injury. I envision Herndon spending most of the 2012 season with the big league club, although I do not see Herndon duplicating the ERA he posted last year. He will probably fluctuate between the major league team and Triple-A for much of the season. He’s not set to hit free agency for five more seasons, so it’s way too early to predict his future. Not much about Herndon tells me the Phillies will be jumping to outbid other teams when that time does come, but then again, Kendrick has turned into a very serviceable pitcher, and that’s probably the best Herndon could hope for too.
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