Big Ten Basketball Tournament PREDICTIONS

Published: 7^th Mar 12 7:40 pm

Drew Wooden
Drew Wooden

RANT It!

The 2012 Big Ten Men’s Basketball Tournament kicks off on Thursday morning when 8th seeded Iowa squares off against 9th seeded Illinois. Seeds 5-12 all play on Thursday in the single game elimination format (see full bracket HERE). The championship game is played Sunday, but let’s break down how this tourney might play-out:

NOTE: for your visual convenience, please see my completed bracket at the bottom of the story with winners highlighted with a yellow circle.

FIRST ROUND:

Iowa vs. Illinois: with the downward spiral that Illinois has experienced under Coach Weber (the Illini have lost 8 of their last 9 games), it’s hard to imagine Illinois beating any team in the Big Ten not named Penn State or Nebraska. Iowa did lose to the Illini on February 26th in the teams’ only meeting of the year, but the Illini had the benefit of home court advantage. I expect Iowa to revenge their earlier loss with a win in the first round.
Indiana vs. Penn State: Penn State truly has a gem with Tim Frazier. But the problem is that’s about all they have. Indiana is a dangerous team right now and their hot shooting and interior dominance with freshman phenom Cody Zeller should be enough to easily coast by the Nittany Lions.
Northwestern vs. Minnesota: Like Illinois, the Golden Gophers are on a downward spiral and have dropped 7 of their last 9 games. While the Gophers and Wildcats split their head-to-head games this year (each team winning on its home court), Northwestern has the extra motivation to fight for its first ever NCAA Tourney berth. That’s enough for me to pick the Wildcats in this match-up.
Purdue vs. Nebraska: The Boilers only played the Cornhuskers once this year, but they easily dominated Nebraska in an 83-65 rout at Mackey Arena. This game might not be as painless as the first match-up, but Purdue has won 5 of its last 7 while the Cornhuskers have lost 8 of their last 9. The Boilermakers should advance to the second round.

SECOND ROUND:

Michigan State vs. Iowa: If there is a major upset to circle, I would circle this game. The Spartans are coming off a season-ending injury to starter and All-Freshman team player Branden Dawson who rebounds, defends, and scores with his athleticism. Iowa’s Matt Gatens is the type of shooter that can upset the number one seed and forwards Aaron White and Melsahn Basabe are a formidable frontcourt. If Michigan State has trouble adjusting with the loss of Dawson, an upset could occur. However, my money is on Tom Izzo’s veteran coaching and Draymond Green’s senior leadership to pull their team together for second round victory.
Wisconsin vs. Indiana: The four and five seeds play in contrasting styles which should be one of the best games of the entire tournament. Wisconsin’s defensive focus and patient swing offense should keep the game close, but Indiana’s hot shooting and transition offense could be too much for Bo Ryan’s squad to overcome. Wisconsin won these two teams’ only game, but that was in Madison and the Hoosiers will be looking for revenge. Advantage Indiana.
Michigan vs. Northwestern: This game should also be one of the best games of the entire tournament. The reason? In the previous two head-t0-head games between these two teams, the game was decided in overtime. Each time, the Wolverines prevailed. Although it’s difficult to beat a team three times, the Wolverines are currently on a 6 of 7 game hot streak. It should be a close game, but the Wolverines will likely stave off the Wildcats and make Northwestern sweat it out on Selection Sunday.
Ohio State vs. Purdue: In just one earlier game this season, the Boilermakers gave Ohio State everything the Buckeyes could handle in Columbus, but came up just short in an 87-84 loss. On a neutral court, Purdue would seem to stand a better chance. Yet, it will be difficult for Purdue to match their 84 point outpour, including 24 points from hot shooting DJ Byrd. Ohio State has too many match-up problems for the Boilermakers, including Jared Sullinger and William Buford. Ohio State should advance to the next round. Disclaimer: if Aaron Craft’s ankle prevents him from playing, this certainly increases Purdue’s chances. It is unclear whether Craft will play, so this is a situation to monitor.

ROUND THREE:

Michigan State vs. Indiana: The Hoosiers and Spartans split their earlier meetings this year and the point differential is even tied at even. What does that mean? This game is a complete toss-up! When push comes to shove in March, it’s hard to pick against Tom Izzo, especially in light of how history has been unkind to the Hoosiers in the Big Ten Tournament (the program has never won a Big Ten Tournament). This game could go either way, but Michigan State’s reliable defense and senior leadership just might be enough to pull out a win versus the team playing in its home state.
Michigan vs. Ohio State: These two teams also split their regular season meetings. However, Ohio State did the Wolverines a favor when they knocked off Michigan State in East Lansing in their final game of the regular season, which gave both the Wolverines and Buckeyes a share of the Big Ten Title. Don’t expect the Buckeyes to give their hated rivals any favors in their third round match-up because Jared Sullinger and Deshaun Thomas are touch match-ups for the Wolverines’ personnel. This should lead to a Buckeye appearance in the championship game.

CHAMPIONSHIP:

Michigan State vs. Ohio State: With the Buckeyes rolling after their regular season finale win over the Spartans in East Lansing, the Spartans will be looking for revenge. However, the Buckeyes have the most talent in the Big Ten this year with future pros Jared Sullinger, William Buford, and Deshaun Thomas. Not to mention Defensive Player of the Year Aaron Craft should be healed to play in the title game. Although the Spartans will be primed and ready to compete, the Buckeyes have the talent to win the crown.