The NFL Draft Is A Guessing Game
You did read the headline correctly and it is completely true. Consider how many different expert opinions there are on each major prospect, and the frequency at which they are wrong. Think about it, how many analyst mock drafts are published every year that accurately predict the results of the draft? None.
For every elite quarterback drafted there are at least two to three busts at the position. If teams had perfected the “science” of the draft, then the Victor Cruzs and Jared Allens of the NFL would be top ten draft picks, and there would be no Vernon Gholstons or Brian Bosworths.
Did any expert analyst/commentator predict that Ed Reed, when he was drafted by the Baltimore Ravens in 2002, would become arguably the greatest free safety of all time? I don’t think so. Your team is basically gambling that in their system, with their coaching staff, the rookies they draft will become quality contributors, if not Pro Bowlers.
Elite prospects are rare, in my opinion there are only four this year, but many teams have a different draft board than the rest, ranking non-elite players ahead of some of the very best. I’m a fan of a team that might have had more busts than any other, the New York Jets, and I, along with almost every expert out there, had no idea Gholston would turn out to be the worst draft pick in Jets history when they picked him sixth overall in 2008.
So when you hear what Mel Kiper says on ESPN or read something that Russ Lande wrote online, you should remember that their opinion is not necessarily an accurate projection of whether or not that player will succeed. Every prospect needs the right circumstances in order to develop, and if put on the wrong team with a coaching staff that doesn’t know how to utilize them properly, then they will fail.
There are no absolutes in the draft, only “educated” guesses and that’s what fans truly need to realize.
Follow me on Twitter @Allicareisjets or you can email me at [email protected]
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