If you look at the trend in the NFL over the last decade or so, it seems as though every year there are five teams who made the playoffs during the previous season who don’t get in. Likewise, as the laws of physics and common sense would dictate, there are five teams who missed the playoffs who do get in.
The 2012 preseason is now behind us, and cuts are being made to bring the rosters down to 53 men. We’ve seen who was drafted, what free agents were signed, and had a taste of what teams will offer us this season. That can only mean one thing…
TIME FOR SOME NFL PREDICTIONS!
A bit early? Perhaps. But if I’m right…well, I won’t have saved the lives of millions of registered voters, but it would still be cool.
So in 2012, who will be the five out…and the five in? Today we’ll look at who will miss the post-season this year.
OUT:
Cincinnati Bengals – The Bengals very typically follow up a successful season with a let-down season, (they haven’t had back-to-back winning seasons since 1981-82). They were able to make all kinds of noise with a rookie tandem at quarterback and wide receiver, Andy Dalton and A.J. Green, and their defense surprised many by ending up in the top ten against both the run and the pass. But this season they’ll have to not only contend with playing a very tough in-division schedule, but they also have to slug their way through the brutal NFC East. Dalton and Green won’t be enough to carry the Bengals back to the postseason without 1,000-yard rusher Cedric Benson. Bengals finish 9-7 and stay home in January.
Pittsburgh Steelers – Picking the Steelers to finish out of the money is usually the kiss of death, but I honestly think they are in a downward trend. Age, and the loss of several key team leaders, including Hines Ward, will hurt as much as anything. They are aging on both sides of the ball, and Ben Roethlisberger‘s health seems to become more and more concerning every season. New offensive coordinator Todd Haley will have his hands full trying to install a new system, especially with what appears to be a very shaky offensive line. Many have predicted the Steelers to not only win this division, but to contend for the Super Bowl. I just see the ground crumbling beneath them.
Steelers are still good, but finish at 10-6.
New Orleans Saints – Distractions abound, head coach M.I.A., interim head coach replaced by interim-interim coach for six games, defensive struggles, and a cloud of bad karma hanging over the Superdome simply spell post-season doom for the Who-Dat nation. The Saints still have Drew Brees and some of the top offensive weapons in the league, but without head coach Sean Payton there to help bring it all together, they won’t be able to make the needed adjustments throughout the season. Their offense will keep them in a lot of games, but in the end, their defense will keep them out of a lot more.
The Saints will come close, but 10-6 will keep them home.
Denver Broncos – It’s never a good idea to bet against Peyton Manning, but I just can’t buy into the 2012 Broncos. Manning will help, and their defense will help more, but truthfully Manning doesn’t have any more weapons to throw to than Kyle Orton and Tim Tebow did. There’s also the question of Manning’s health, and if his body – in particular his surgically repaired neck – will be able to withstand the punishment of the entire NFL season. Denver has been searching for an identity ever since Mike Shanahan left, and I don’t see them finding it this year.
Broncos go 9-7, and watch the party on TV.
Detroit Lions – As happy as I was to see Matthew Stafford and the Lions make a good showing in 2011, I’m afraid there wont be a repeat this year. The Lions have issues on both sides of the ball, and their lack of depth is going to catch up with them early. Having Stafford throw to Calvin Johnson is only going to win so many games for them. Their lack of running game (and right now, running backs) will come back to haunt them. There is nothing that good defenses like more than to play a one-dimensional team, and Detroit has to play some very good defenses this season. The other problem the Lions run into on a yearly basis is Matthew Stafford’s annual injury sabbatical. 2011 was the first time Stafford played in all 16 games, so whether or not he can repeat that feat will go a long way in determining the fate of the Lions.
I’ll give the Lions a 9-7 prediction, and say better luck next season.
Tomorrow we’ll look at which five teams will be in the playoffs this year that didn’t make the cut last season.
