Photo courtesy of dalli58 on Flickr
It’s that time again when the Premier League’s bottom clubs go head-to-head in an attempt to stave off the relegation wolves and avoid the drop to the lower divisions.
Wigan, Aston Villa, Norwich, Stoke, Sunderland and Newcastle could all realistically become embroiled in the scrap for last place, but who has the best chance of survival and who is most likely to fall through the Championship trapdoor?
Wigan have had that knack of just scraping enough points together to ward off relegation in recent years. They are fortunate to have such an astute manager in Roberto Martinez, and I feel he will just coax enough out of Arouna Kone to keep Wigan in the top division by the skin of their teeth.
The problem Wigan may have is that center back Antolin Alcaraz has torn his hamstring meaning he will miss the relegation run-in. Provided they don’t concede too many goals in Alcaraz’s absence, Wigan’s goal difference should ensure their survival.
Norwich should have done enough to survive with that much needed win over Reading but manager Chris Hughton insists they need more points and that they won’t be safe until they have another win. To be fair to Hughton, he’s probably right in the fact that another win will be enough and with favorable games coming up, you wouldn’t bet against them.
The Canaries problem seems to be lack of confidence when things don’t go their way. Hughton has already agreed a deal to sign Ricky Van Wolfswinkel in the hope he solves their striker crisis, but diminishing confidence is going to be the biggest challenge for Norwich next year.
Stoke City may not be one of the most attractive teams to watch, but their physical style and penchant for collecting the odd scalp, most notably Liverpool this year, has led to them having the second-best goal difference of all the relegation threatened clubs. Stoke’s away record has been abysmal this year, and no team has conceded more set piece goals than the Potters.
Stoke will survive this year but they have to learn how to pick up points away from the Brittania Stadium in order to progress up the table.
Sunderland have the best goal difference of the six clubs, and the same rule that applies to Norwich applies here in the fact that one more win for Sunderland should be enough for survival. Two wins in their last two games over Newcastle and Everton have ensured that an air of confidence has returned to the Black Cats and with reasonably propitious fixtures remaining, they should just survive.
Newcastle have the biggest challenge ahead in terms of fixtures and were Aston Villa not in a bigger predicament, I would have picked Newcastle as favorites to go down. Tough fixtures ahead against Liverpool and Arsenal lie ahead and should Newcastle lose these games, it leaves them having to rely on Aston Villa dropping points.
It’s a tough one, but I’m going to have to go with Newcastle just to survive as I reckon they can scrape a draw against Liverpool.
Unfortunately, this brings me to the inevitable conclusion that Aston Villa, Premier League ever-presents since it’s inception, will be the team to fall victim to the dreaded drop. It’s going to come down to the last day when Villa face Wigan in a relegation scrap that will, in all likelihood, demote Villa.
Paul Lambert has been criticized for his over-reliance on young players, and it looks like this decision will come back to haunt him with a pounding by Chelsea surely on the horizon.
Regardless of the points that can be collected by Villa, the damage has already been done and although it will be sad to see Villa go, owner Randy Lerner should start preparing for life in the Championship.
James Hilton is a soccer writer for www.RantSports.com. Follow him on Twitter , Facebook or add him to your network on Google
