Five points. That’s the hill Tottenham have to climb in the next nine games to catch Leicester. Eight. That’s how far back third-place Arsenal are. And while nine games is more than enough time for an impressive Spurs or a resurgent Gunners to scale such heights, Leicester have one key advantage: Their path is all downhill from here.
In truth, there are two advantages here. First is a schedule in those remaining nine matches. In the next six league games, Leicester face only two top-10 teams. And while those two teams are a rising Southampton and impressive West Ham, the Foxes could probably afford to lose those and still come out better than those below them.
Compare that to Tottenham’s big matches against Liverpool, Manchester United and Stoke in the same period.
Second, Leicester have nothing else to worry about but winning the league. Looking at the other teams in competition, everyone else has at least Europe on their minds. Spurs are going up against Borussia Dortmund next week. Arsenal, meanwhile, have an even more cluttered schedule with FA Cup and Champions League responsibilities coming up. Behind them, Manchester City have the Champions League right before playing cross-city rivals United in a couple weeks’ time.
All that soccer will inevitably lead to some tired players, missed opportunities and dropped points. Meanwhile, Leicester will have a week at a time to prepare for the likes of Newcastle, Crystal Palace and Sunderland.
True, there’s United, Everton and Chelsea to worry about in May, and there’s much to fear in unexpected injuries (particularly with Riyad Mahrez hobbling a bit against Watford today), but the league may end up being theirs by inertia as much as effort at this point. Manuel Pellegrini has suggested 75 points could be enough to win it all this year. That’s five wins out of those final nine games with at least four extremely beatable teams ahead.
After a year of disbelief, the path to a Leicester title has cleared. While the big clubs wander off on back roads looking for prestige elsewhere, Leicester may just stroll into history.