Coming off one of the worst debut seasons in recent years, Kyle Drabek has become quite the enigma for Toronto. The centerpiece of the Roy Halladay trade, Drabek was expected to become a future anchor for the Blue Jays rotation. His first few starts in 2010 showed some promise, and despite the ugly 4.76 ERA, Drabek was expected to help the Jays improve on their 85 win season. Unfortunately, Drabek took a major step backwards, and his future is in jeopardy at this point.
Drabek was arguably rushed heading into the 2011 season. He was deceptively good in AA, putting up a 2.94 ERA while walking a few too many batters and not striking out enough to be considered an elite pitching prospect. The Jays felt he didn’t need time in AAA, a questionable decision in hindsight given the fact that he didn’t really dominate AA. Part of this reason is because their AAA affiliate, Las Vegas, plays as an extreme hitters park. However, if he’s going to pitch in the gauntlet that is the AL East than he’s going to need to learn to pitch in unfavourable conditions. So keeping him out of AAA because it’s a difficult stadium for pitchers is sending the wrong message.
It’s possible the Jays felt he was ready, based on his performance in 2010. He showed good command, posting a strikeout to walk ratio of 2.40. Combined with an outstanding groundball rate, and Drabek had the making of a top of the rotation starter. His first game of the season was a gem. He went 7 innings against the Twins, striking out 7, walking 3 while allowing 1 run. He showed off his cutter, and had the Twins looking like minor leaguers.
Unfortunately this was Drabek’s only good game of the season. Drabek often walked as many as he struck out, and it’s just not possible for a pitcher to keep his team in the game when he gives his opponents so many opportunities to score. Through 78 2/3 innings, Drabek had a 5.83 ERA and ended up with more walks (55) than strikeouts (51).
Drabek’s problems were of his own creation. His velocity remained strong, averaging 93.5 MPH on his fastball. He didn’t struggle with bad luck on BABIP (310), and he was ineffective against both right and left handed hitters. No, Drabek’s biggest problems were related to one thing – his complete and utter lack of control. Drabek walked more than 6 batters per 9 innings – nearly double Brandon Morrow’s walk rate. As the season went on, hitters swung less at Drabek’s pitches, meaning that the scouting report on Drabek was that he had no control, and there was no point in getting yourself out when he was happy to walk you. His swinging strike rate dropped from 2010, meaning that his stuff wasn’t fooling hitters nearly as much either. Drabek was often pitching from behind in the count, as his 51.8% first strike was last on the Jays with more than 60 innings pitched. You can’t afford to be pitching from behind half the time when you have no control whatsoever.
The Jays wisely demoted him to AAA in June, but the results weren’t any better. Drabek walked nearly as many hitters as he struck out, and didn’t show much improvement as the season went on.
At this point it’s questionable if Drabek will return to the majors, let alone as a top of the rotation starter. He’s been passed by prospects such as Henderson Alvarez, and with several more on the way Drabek’s time may be running out. The Jays need to be patient with their right hander, and need to give him another chance to work his way up from AAA.
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