The Great Big 2012 Blue Jays Forecast Series, Part 1: J.P. Arencibia
With spring training officially just under a month away, I thought now would be a good time to start a series of projections on what the 2012 Toronto Blue Jays might look like. Each day (don’t hold me to this), I will profile a 2012 Blue Jays starter, based on my (usually positive) expectations. Caveat: while this series might turn out to be neither great nor all that big , I can promise you that there will be seemingly arbitrary numbers that I will throw out there at the end of each profile. Hell, I will even try to find something to say about the newest Blue Jay, Nelson Figueroa. To start things off, we’ll take a look at catcher, J.P. Arencibia.
Entering his second season as the Blue Jays #1 catcher, it feels almost as though JP Arencibia is getting a overlooked a bit among Blue Jays banter, what with prospect Travis d’Arnaud being named the 2nd best catcher prospect in the majors by MLB.com, and presumably nipping at the heels of a platoon potentially as soon as the latter months of the upcoming season. For a guy who set the franchise record of the number of HRs in a season by a catcher, JP could already soon be a player at a crossroads with the club, and a strong performance to will go a long way in maintaing his status as the bluebirds’ core catcher in the forseeable future.
We knew going into the 2011 season that Arencibia probably wouldn’t hit for much average, but .219/.282 is probably a fair bit worse than most would have predicted. Despite getting off to a modest start to the season (.258/.311-8 through April and May), Arencibia’s production nosedived in June after bruising his left thumb. The injury might have had a role to play with Arencibia’s average and lack of ability to draw walks, but for the most part, the power stayed true as the catcher finished the season with a .219 ISO. There’s a certainly lot of work for Arencibia to do heading into his age-26 season, both on the offensive and defensive side of the game, but given his power-driven abilities coming into the league, I would say chances are decent that we see a marked improvement on at least the offensive side of things.
Going into 2012, Arencibia should retain his spot near the bottom of the order, and I think I expect a more patient approach from the swing-happy catcher this year. While I don’t think he’ll be getting on base at a very useful clip, The 27.4% strikeout rate last season (37% in July!!) should normalize a little bit closer to 25% as he learns a little bit more about his opponents at this level. The good news is that while you can work on a batter’s approach, you certainly can’t teach power; and Arencibia’s power should only improve as he heads into his prime seasons. His .219 ISO already puts him 2nd among MLB catchers with at least 200PA in 2011 (behind Mike Napoli), and if Arencibia can get his bat on the ball a little more this season, I don’t see a reason why he couldn’t top his power numbers from his rookie year.
I suppose the biggest question here is how good is a healthy JPA’s bat in the majors, as compared to the JPA who played through a nagging thumb injury? Now, if it were only Jeff Mathis backing him up, I don’t think JPA would have much to worry about – his production is above-average for the position, and would allow him to stay there and learn the nuances to the defensive side of the game at the big league level. But with a multi-tooled Travis d’Arnaud coming up, the Blue Jays might have a good dilemma to make soon; as nice as JPA’s power bat is to have, I don’t think it’d play anywhere else on the team besides catcher (not even DH). It feels almost wrong that I’m just about to use the term “make or break”, but looking at the situation, it might not be too far from the truth.
That being said, I like JP Arencibia’s chances to hold on to the chair for a bit longer. With a year under his belt, he’ll know better what it’s like to play through a season catching 1000+ innings, and hopefully building off that into a more consistent season. Here are my predictions for JPA in 2012:
510 PA, .255/.315/.450, 26 HR
As always, comments are appreciated; I think predictions tend to be one of the more fun parts about a new baseball season, so feel free to throw your own line in the comment section!
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I agree with the fact that he may be pushed out in the next year – 2 years. I think he has the potential to be a 30hr/season catcher and drive in 75-85 runs a season…. but his defence is sub par at best. This obviously takes time to develop but with D’Arnaud coming up good on offense and D… I would like to bet Arencebia will be traded in the next 2 seasons. Its a good problem to have as he will fetch a good return if he puts up decent numbers.
Jays should dangle him in front of the Reds at end of this year as bait for Votto.
IF JPA has a monster year he could be considered a 1B, in my opinion, that where I always thought he would end up….especially when d´arnaud is banging on the door this year and next year… Thats the only reason im not tearing my hair out about prince fielder…
I pretty much agree with your assessment of JP. I felt he did a respectable job last year considering a catcher has so much more to learn. He seemed a good fit with his team mates but with DArnaud
nearly ready it would seem likely he will be moved as I don’t think he would accept back up roll. It would be interesting to see he and DArnaud together for one season to see how much they would push one another.
As far as first base goes I don’t think he or Lind is sufficient protection for Bautista. Jose will keep being walked with Lind or JP being strikeout prone. Fielder would have given Jose a chance at a awesome season.
You know you’ve basically projected Arencibia to be Carlton Fisk next year, right?
Exactly like Carlton Fisk – but with more strikeouts, less contact, less walks, and worse defense.
.240 with 30HRs and 75+ RBIs is good enough production to be a solid catcher, why don’t we trade D’Arnaud while his value is still so high?