The Great Big 2012 Blue Jays Forecast Series, Part 3: Kelly Johnson
With spring training officially just under a month away, I thought now would be a good time to start a series of projections on what the 2012 Toronto Blue Jays might look like. Each day (don’t hold me to this), I will profile a 2012 Blue Jays starter, closing with a set of numbers based on my (usually positive) expectations. Today, we continue moving around the diamond with a look at 2nd baseman, and relatively new Blue Jay, Kelly Johnson.
When I first started gathering my thoughts about what 2012 might bring for the Blue Jays, I have to say that I didn’t really envision Kelly Johnson being part of it. A late acquisition by the Blue Jays in a trade that saw two 2nd baseman who had reached the end of the line with their respective teams (the other being Aaron Hill), Johnson was a guy who the Blue Jays could take an extended look at, before he’d inevitably decline arbitration in the off-season and move on to richer pastures, leaving the Blue Jays with a draft pick for their troubles.
But even in a market where Nick Punto wound up with a multi-year contract, Kelly Johnson wound up accepting arbitration, then signing a one-year deal worth 6.38 million dollars, a slight raise to avoid the meeting itself. The amount itself is nothing surprising, if only based on Johnson’s 20-15+ production and positional considerations (even Aaron Hill would end up signing a 2-year, $11 million contract) – if anything, based on Johnson’s 2.2 WAR season, it would make him slightly underpaid.
Regardless of whether it’s a matter of Johnson wanting a one-year deal to boost his value going into 2013 (a year where free agency is lined up to be less dominated by big names), his return to the Blue Jays can be considered, at the very least, a 2nd – and extended – audition. Considering what he showed in 33 games in the AL East, I’m very much looking forward to what a full season of the 29-year old could bring to the table. Now, I am aware of the potential perils of Johnson: his poor 2009 season led to Atlanta giving up on him early, and after a BABIP-fueled (.339), resurgent 2010 where he put up some pretty gaudy numbers and 5.9 WAR, he struggled once again in 2011 with the hack-friendly Arizona system. Like the Braves, the Diamondbacks opted to move him for pieces that they thought would help them in their playoff run.
At the end of the day, though, the overall picture on Johnson has more positives than negatives. He plays above-average defense, has a little bit of both power (career .181 ISO) and speed, and most importantly, he gets on base (career .343 OBP). Does the suddenly spiking strikeout rate the last 2 seasons concern me? A little bit, sure, but considering that it was on a Diamondbacks team where strikeouts were the norm in (tops in the league in 2010, top 10 in 2011), I have to believe that a different offensive approach with a new team could bring that down; that he hasn’t struck out more than 20% until he got to Arizona and his power numbers surged says enough about that to me.
But really, the key part of what I think is expected Johnson’s in 2012, compared to when the Blue Jays had Aaron Hill, is his ability to avoid making outs. You know all those pop-ups? That’s unlikely to happen much with Johnson, who boasts a career 6.2% infield fly ball rate (4.6 % in 2011). He posted a triple slash of .270/.364/.417 in a little over a month with the bluebirds, numbers that I think are closer to his ceiling than his base – in a contract year (some say it doesn’t affect performance, I think it provides incentive), I think he’s more likely reach that than have a repeat of say, 2009 (.224/.303/.389).
Let’s put it this way. If we were talking about fantasy baseball, I’m definitely buying in on Kelly Johnson. I don’t necessarily think he’ll be with the Blue Jays past 2012; but regardless of whether Johnson winds up being traded, or plays the whole year with the team hitting near the top of the order, I think he will outperform the value on his $6.38 million contract and provide more of a complete player than what we’ve had the last 2 seasons, even though I do really think Aaron Hill is due for a rebound year himself. And plus, what other options did we really have, Mike Mccoy?
Here’s a brief summation of what I’m expecting from Johnson in 2012:
580 PA, .270/.350/.430, 16 HR, 11 SB
I’m placing a fair bit of faith in his walk rate to come back up (as it did, to 12.1% with the Blue Jays), and the strikeout rate to come down. Maybe I’m also being a little conservative with the HR total too, but I think anything over 15-10 from Johnson would just be a bonus at this point, considering that he’ll always hit for better contact and get on base more often. As always, I do enjoy reading what everyone else thinks about these players, so constructive comments are always appreciated.
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Previous 2012 Blue Jays forecasts:
Part 1: J.P. Arencibia - 510 PA, .255/.315/.450, 26 HR
Part 2: Adam Lind – 600 PA, .260/.320/.445, 26 HR
2 Rants to “The Great Big 2012 Blue Jays Forecast Series, Part...”
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Considering the alternatives, Johnson was 1st on my list.
1. He will be an improvement over Hill who has had a 2 year slump.
2. He has excellent defensive abilities as he showed late last year.
3. He can hit for both average and power. Last year’s performance
should represent a minimum for our expectations and there is the
possibility of tremendous upside.
4. There was no other attractive alternative.
Johnson is going to be a top 10 AL secondbaseman this year. I agree with Allan Hume’s comment that Johnson has “tremendous upside.” This is his second year to figure out AL pitching and he’ll do it for 20HRs. Not bad for a middle infielder