With spring training officially just under a month away, we continue with a series of projections on what the 2012 Toronto Blue Jays might look like. Each day (don’t hold me to this), I will profile a 2012 Blue Jays starter, closing with a set of numbers based on my (usually positive) expectations. Taking things (presumably) off the field, today’s subject of focus is the Blue Jays DH, Edwin Encarnacion.
An aside, if I may: although nowhere near as wordy as the forecasts I’m doing currently, what predictions I made about last year’s Blue Jays roster turned out to be somewhat inaccurate almost completely, totally dead wrong. Snider having a break-out season? Nope. Hill, Lind having bounce back seasons? Try again. How about J-Bau coming down to earth? Not even close. Edwin Encarnacion though, helped me salvage things little bit; not because I had closely predicted the numbers that he ended up producing, but because I was set on this: as long as Edwin Encarnacion doesn’t play on the field, the guy can, and will hit.
That, in a nutshell, describes how Encarnacion’s season was lost and found in 2011. First, the obvious stuff: Encarnacion can’t play defense. He’s a well-below average defender at 1st, and at 3rd…well, you know the story by now. So when the Blue Jays made the surprise the decision to put Encarnacion at 3rd to start 2011, boasting about how he was in better shape and how he’d re-dedicated himself to the defensive game, most of us knew the team was flirting with disaster there. Sure enough, the errors and jeers piled up right from the get go, and the pressure on Encarnacion to make routine plays seemingly made him respond despondently. It was E5, but posting the worst defensive stats in his career – an .892 fielding percentage, and a staggering -37.0 UZR/150 – to start the season. Sure, defensive metrics aren’t perfect, but Edwin’s play was abysmal.
Worst yet, it was clearly affecting his approach and performance at the plate. Encarnacion has always had decent power (career .193 ISO), but you wouldn’t know it over the first two months of 2011. In April and May, E5 was unable to hit for either average (.246) or power (1HR, .102 ISO), nor was he able to draw walks (2.6%) or get on base (.274). In other words, Encarnacion was basically a total loss both offensively and defensively, and was just waiting to be DFA’d.
Yet, 36 games and 273 innings later, it was over. Not E5′s career as a Blue Jay, of course, but his time in baseball abyss. The catalyst? Taking the glove away, and letting him focus on hitting. It was something the Reds couldn’t afford to do while Encarnacion in the NL, but a sensible move for the bluebirds to make. The effect was immediate: Encarnacion bumped his OPS by over 200 points in June (.846), and carried the confidence into a better July (.909). By August, the guy was running just behind Bautista as the best hitter on the team, with a .961 OPS and 6 home runs for the month, drawing nearly 4 times as many walks as he did over the first two months of the season. I could go on and try to continue the narrative, but the numbers seem to do it so much better: Edwin Encarnacion, the DH, posted a triple slash of .296/.361/.494, while E5 the 3rd baseman managed .213/.287/.385. The revival of E5 was complete.
Encarnacion even carried his strong plate performance with him when the Blue Jays called on him to play a little first base. Though still a poor defender, Encarnacion’s bat stayed strong, posting a .305/.337/.463 over 25 games. I’d point out the performance dip here compared to when he was DH, but with only a small-ish 25 game sample size, I think it’d be reasonable to let it slide.
So now here’s the thing. If Encarnacion was that great over 70 games as DH last season, how good will he be as a full-time DH (and maybe the odd game at 1st) at twice that number? I can’t imagine he’ll rake quite the same way he did last summer, with his high-BA months of July and August having been boosted by well-above career norm BABIPs (.361 and .321 respectively, vs the career average of .282). That being said, Edwin’s power will probably remain close to .200 in 2012, and should Farrell not pull something crazy and put Encarnacion in the outfield or something, it should yield some pretty good offensive numbers.
Here is what I’m thinking Encarnacion can do without the glove next season:
580PA, .270/.330/.465, 23 HR, 6 SB
I’ve said some of not very kind things about Encarnacion in the past, even though I do think that he could be a decent bat, as long as that’s all he does on the field. That will obviously diminish some of his value as a player to the team; but with some luck, I’m hopeful that Edwin can push a .800 OPS season, and be enough of a power threat (with a handful of steals) that could perhaps see him move up in the batting order a bit in 2012. He might not be a long term piece for the Blue Jays, but until they’ve tried him full time at DH, I don’t think we’ve seen the best of E5 yet.
You comments are appreciated, as always. Anyone out there think Edwin gets more than a few looks at 1st in 2012? What do you think of a potential lefty/righty platoon with Lind?
Next: the outfield!
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Previous 2012 Blue Jays forecasts:
Part 1: J.P. Arencibia - 510 PA, .255/.315/.450, 26 HR
Part 2: Adam Lind – 600 PA, .260/.320/.445, 26 HR
Part 3: Kelly Johnson – 580 PA, .270/.350/.430, 16 HR, 11 SB
Part 4: Brett Lawrie – 610 PA, .280/.340/.490, 20 HR, 22 SB
Part 5: Yunel Escobar – 605 PA, .285/.365/.405, 10 HR, 5 SB
I see EE as capable easily of .270 BA /30 HR in a full season at DH. He is a streaky hitter, real raw power, such a beautiful natural swing when he is locked in. Easy power in a hitter’s park. If things ever really go his way for a while, could do some real damage offensively.
Not a long term Jay likely – but an undervalue player, sure – thus AA’s man crush on him.
Alan