The Great Big 2012 Blue Jays Forecast Series, Part 7: Eric Thames
With spring training officially just under a month away, we continue with a series of projections on what the 2012 Toronto Blue Jays might look like. Each day (don’t hold me to this), I will profile a 2012 Blue Jays starter, closing with a set of numbers based on my (usually positive) expectations. Today, we take a look at one of the two potential Blue Jays left fielders for the 2012 season, Eric Thames.
Given everything that was supposed to happen in an ideal scenario in 2011, it’s a bit of a surprise that we’re here talking about Eric Thames potentially being the starting left fielder in 2012. Not only that, but Thames heads into spring training as the candidate with the “leg up” in the competition between he and Travis Snider, the long thought to be bluebirds left-fielder-and-middle-of-the-order-bat of the future. Make no mistake here: Thame’s rapid rise to the big leagues was one borne out of Snider’s failures to (so far) fulfill his potential, but to Thame’s credit, he’s taken the opportunity and run with it.
For a player who missed nearly a couple of seasons with injuries, and who started 2010 in rookie ball, that’s no small accomplishment. Thames ranked just outside of the top 11 on Baseball Prospectus’ look at Blue Jays prospects headed into 2011, but that only goes to show how quickly things can change, especially in a deep farm system. It wasn’t all smooth sailing for the then-24-year old, however: Thames’ initial stint with the Blue Jays last season lasted just 13 games before he was sent back down to AAA to make room for Adam Lind, leaving a unimpressive .631 OPS mark in the process. Even with how Thames had dominated AA in 2010, and how he’d tore the cover off the ball in AAA kicking off 2011, maybe he wasn’t quite ready after all?
Just under a month after he was sent down, Thames was given a 2nd chance to answer that question, and this time, he ran with it for the rest of the season: showing a swing-first aggressiveness at the plate that let his gap power do the talking, Thames came back in June with a roar, hitting .370 and posting a ridiculous .741 slugging percentage over final 5 games of the month. Sure, it was a very small sample size, and he didn’t draw a single walk while striking out an unsustainable 33% of the time…but it was a statement that you couldn’t ignore from Thames, flaws and all.
Thames’s performance for the rest of year normalized, and while the flaws remained largely the same, the results were solid: a .791 OPS in July, followed by an even better .811 in August, with 8 home runs and 15 doubles between the two. The rookie’s strength faded significantly after that, ending the season with a .651 OBP in September; but 2011 being just his 2nd season in pro ball with 600+ PA, I think it’d be reasonable to give him a mulligan on the month. Overall, Thames posted a .262/.313/.456 line in his rookie season – not spectacular by any means, but solid enough to be head-turning. More importantly, it’d been better than what Travis Snider had done since he was rushed to the bigs at just 20 years old.
So what of Thames in 2012? Personally, I think the team ought to run with Snider for the upside, but that’s to be decided in spring training. There’s also good chance that the players will split time this season, or one of them could be moved at some point…the point is, left field is in a position in flux for the 2012 Blue Jays, and I’m not about to project the amount of playing time that either player will have. Do I think Thames could end up being a decent corner outfielder? Sure. But, his game comes with significant weaknesses. For one, his defense is well below average in the outfield (-15.9 UZR/150), with a throwing arm that is suspect at best (although, there has been some buzz made about his renewed focus on arm strength training this off-season, so I’m very open to that fact that it could change). Thames also doesn’t hit lefties at all (.209/.242/.395), and his batting eye (0.26 BB/K) is less than desirable. Finally, Thames is an aggressive, plus fastball hitter, but below average against breaking pitches – adjustments that he’ll have to make as pitchers adjust next season.
With all that said, there are certainly things to like here. Thames has good gap power, and doesn’t often swing to hit fly balls (1.08 GB/FB). Combined with a healthy line-drive rate of 22.7%, it means that he’s likely to continue being on the right side of the BABIP game when it comes to his batting average. He hit more triples than Jose Bautista in 2011, while being tied for 2nd on the team in doubles with 24 – pretty impressive stuff, especially when considering Thames had just 394 PA with the team in 2011.
Because of the unknown playing time factor around Thames, I’ll limit my forecast for him to about a half season’s worth of work:
300 PA, .270/.315/.455, 8 HR, 3 SB
What isn’t noted here are the doubles, which I think he’ll hit a lot of (40+ over a full year isn’t out of the question). If he winds up playing the full season, I think the HR and SB numbers can basically be extrapolated to just around 600 PA. Like I said, solid, if not spectacular. The questions around his defense will continue until he answers them, and there’s still the upside factor too – just how good can Thames become?
This is likely to be a hot topic going into spring training, so your thoughts and comments are appreciated, as always. Tomorrow, I’ll make the case for the other kid competing for a spot in left field.
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Previous 2012 Blue Jays forecasts:
Part 1: J.P. Arencibia - 510 PA, .255/.315/.450, 26 HR
Part 2: Adam Lind – 600 PA, .260/.320/.445, 26 HR
Part 3: Kelly Johnson – 580 PA, .270/.350/.430, 16 HR, 11 SB
Part 4: Brett Lawrie – 610 PA, .280/.340/.490, 20 HR, 22 SB
Part 5: Yunel Escobar – 605 PA, .285/.365/.405, 10 HR, 5 SB
Part 6: Edwin Encarnacion – 580PA, .270/.330/.465, 23 HR, 6 SB
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[...] The Great Big 2012 Blue Jays Forecast Series, Part 7: Eric Thames He hit more triples than Jose Bautista in 2011, while being tied for 2nd on the team in doubles with 24 – pretty impressive stuff, especially when considering Thames had just 394 PA with the team in 2011. Read more on Rant Sports [...]
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[...] competition that was the 2012 Blue Jays Battle For The Left (Field) ended today, with Eric Thames emerging as the winner, and Travis Snider demoted to AAA again. For his part, Snider seemed to take [...]
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