With spring training officially just under a month away, we continue with a series of projections on what the 2012 Toronto Blue Jays might look like. Each day (don’t hold me to this), I will profile a 2012 Blue Jays starter, closing with a set of numbers based on my (usually positive) expectations. We continue to move along the projected rotation today with a look at lefty Brett Cecil.
I tend to lean on the positive side of things when considering what the future might bring for the Blue Jays personnel, but if there’s one player on the team that bucks the trend, it’d be Brett Cecil. So while I’ll try to look on the bright side of things, this particular post in the series isn’t exactly going to be filled with glowing remarks.
You know how sometimes you watch pitchers, and you’re not really sure how they’re getting guys out because their stuff looks (as far as you can tell) sub-par? For me, that’s always been Cecil. I know he’s only 25, always had strikeout stuff in the minors, and development for lefties tend to take slightly longer paths than their right-handed counterparts…but I’ve just never seen any start of Cecil’s where I’ve found his raw ability to be particularly impressive since he came up in 2009. Crafty, control pitchers tend to have that effect on me though, so to be fair, it might very well just be me.
In any case, much hoopla was made about Cecil’s 15-win 2010 season as being a big step in the then-23 year old’s development, with Cecil having cut his walk rate by over 23% from his debut season, all the way down to a clean 2.81 BB/9 over 28 starts. It wasn’t always pretty (6.92/1.96 September), but for a significant stretch of the season, he’d gotten the job done. A large part of that success might have come from Cecil’s increased reliance on a developing change-up, throwing it 23.4% of the time in 2010, a near 65% increase from his previous 90-some innings. The improved pitch gave him a more varied sequence to attack hitters with, and did its part to mask what was otherwise a below-average fastball. While Cecil still wasn’t very good against righties, he’d posted near-elite numbers against lefties (.221 BA, 6.17 K/BB); he was a solid pitcher on the back end of the rotation, and continued improvement in 2011 meant that Cecil could take a larger role.
As we all know by now, what improvements Cecil had expected to make in 2011 ultimately became a step back from the moment he’d mysteriously lost a few ticks from his fastball. Not that it was an overpowering pitch to begin with by any means, but it was still a crucial pitch that he used to set up the off-speed stuff. Cecil tried (unsuccessfully) to learn to pitch around the fact that he couldn’t hit 90 on the radar gun, and his season was derailed after 4 April starts defined by ineffectiveness, being demoted to AAA to find the extra couple of ticks on the fastball. After 12 starts in Vegas that saw him post one complete game shutout mixed between mostly not-great starts, Cecil made his return to the Blue jays at the end of the June, having rediscovered his velocity.
The result was a dud, with Cecil giving up 6 runs on 8 hits over 6+ innings. It was just one start, though; as July rolled around, the lefty turned things around, much as he had in July of 2010. Limiting his opponents to a .231 average and giving up just 0.97 HR/9 over 37 IP, Cecil put up a 2.19/1.14 ERA/WHIP over 5 excellent starts, looking poised to complete his 2011 on a redeeming note. But like his 2010 season Cecil couldn’t hold the momentum through September, with opponents having batted .288 against him over 4 starts and giving up 6 home runs in just 20 IP.
The 5.85/1.45 split to end the year wasn’t exactly a vote of confidence for Cecil, and how you choose to look at the 2012 might bring for him depends on how much you’re willing to overlook that. With late season swoons two years in a row, is there an endurance issue there? Cecil took a 40+ inning jump in workload in 2010, faded in September and came into 2011 with velocity problems. Combined with his time in Las Vegas, last year was the first time in Cecil’s pro career that he’s thrown 200+ innings in a season of pro ball; it’s a big step for sure, but bigger yet will be his ability to remain consistent throughout. Cecil’s fly ball rate is also moving upwards, a 3-year trend settling at an uncomfortable 43.5% last season that caused the HR/9 to spike to 1.60, something that I would expect to come down this year. That Cecil still gives up nearly 9 H/9 is something of an issue even if the home run rate is going to drop, and that his BABIP was at a uncharacteristically-low .267 doesn’t exactly instill confidence. Things were bad for Cecil last season, but his luck with batted balls over July and August suggest things could have be worse yet.
It’s just one way of looking at things, though. As I’ve said before, I’m not much of a Cecil fan, so I’m not exactly holding my breath for a breakout year. That being said, Cecil is not nearly as bad as he was last April, and I think a return to 2010 form season is very possible. At the same time, that’s just the thing, isn’t it? A return to 4.22/1.33 ERA/WHIP form isn’t exactly impressive, but merely serviceable. Unless you see wins as an evaluator (I don’t), Cecil just hasn’t put up head-turning numbers. He’s shown moments of brilliance, but will he be able to string them together through a longer stretch (say, 10 starts) at some point?
But as John Farrell have said, the team will be looking for Cecil to bounce back in 2012 as a key to the team’s success, so barring health issues surfacing in spring training, Cecil will have a rotation spot going into the season. This is how I think he’ll wind up performing:
180 IP, 4.40 ERA / 1.35 WHIP, 6.1 K/9, 2.95 BB/9
Assuming the BABIP normalizes in 2012 for Cecil, he’ll likely wind up giving up more hits than innings pitched, something that didn’t happen last year. I also think unless he can keep the amount of fly balls under control, he’ll wind up giving up his fair share of homer still. To succeed, he’ll have to once again make the change-up an effective pitch, and improve his control. PitchFX suggests that the curve was the only positive-value pitch in Cecil’s arsenal in 2011, so there’s a lot of work to be done.
Admittedly, I think I’ve deliberately set a low bar in my personal expectations as a fan, hoping Cecil can do much better. Does any of you think Cecil can make a big jump from his 2010 season? Is 2011 a total mulligan for the lefty? What do you think of his workload? Your comments are appreciated, as usual.
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Previous 2012 Blue Jays forecasts:
Part 1: J.P. Arencibia - 510 PA, .255/.315/.450, 26 HR
Part 2: Adam Lind – 600 PA, .260/.320/.445, 26 HR
Part 3: Kelly Johnson – 580 PA, .270/.350/.430, 16 HR, 11 SB
Part 4: Brett Lawrie – 610 PA, .280/.340/.490, 20 HR, 22 SB
Part 5: Yunel Escobar – 605 PA, .285/.365/.405, 10 HR, 5 SB
Part 6: Edwin Encarnacion – 580PA, .270/.330/.465, 23 HR, 6 SB
Part 7: Eric Thames – 300 PA, .270/.315/.455, 8 HR, 3 SB
Part 8: Travis Snider – 300 PA, .265/.315/.450, 9 HR, 5 SB
Part 9: Colby Rasmus – 590 PA, .260/.325/.445, 19 HR, 14 SB
Part 10: Jose Bautista – 650 PA, .295/.415/.595, 40 HR, 11 SB
Part 11: Henderson Alvarez – 150 IP, 4.25 ERA / 1.28 WHIP, 5.7 K/9, 1.85 BB/9
I don’t understand why no-one projects Cecil to pitch 200 innings. He threw over 200 innings last year between AAA and MLB and the Jays are looking to him to be a workhorse innings eater in the middle of the rotation. He may not be a particularly great one, but I fully expect the Jays to let Cecil pitch his guts out all year in hopes of raising his trade value.
RE:Razor
Lets get one thing clear, he has no trade value now and 200innings or not he wont end up with much more then JoJo Reyes value. (nothing) Hes a cologne line away from being Gustavo Chacine and his wife is a HUGE bitch. (not going to elaborate on how I know that but I will say its via direct contact with her)
Having said that, I believe he will be given every opportunity to succeed but he’ll ultimately fall short. With a young Alvarez and McGowans innings watch Cecil has a chance to stay in the lineup all year unless a move is made, Drabek, Laffy or X will be the replacement if either of those two falter creating a realistically short supply of arms for “12.
I think what this review misses is the fact that Cecil has made a commitment to increasing his physicality this off-season. His drop in velocity, I think, was a result of a less than productive off season after a more than expected 2010 season. I believe Cecil is a fighter and will be a huge contributor to the Jays playoff push this year. He’ll keep them in close games as the third starter on the team. And, don’t forget, Cecil is part of the core, despite what the media says.. He has great rapport with the team and everyone wants him to succeed. I don’t care what the slash on him is… that counts for wins.
Playoff push? Keep them in close games as the third starter ! Lmso. First of all AA and Farrel have already stated Alvarez is going to be in the 3 spot and Cecil couldn’t keep the jays in close games in 2011 so how you figure that will happen now? He isn’t a core piece of this team and will be out of the rotation when he struggles badly and the first to lose his spot if and when the jays make a trade for a SP. as for the playoff push I hope they are close to a wildcard this year but realistically I think 2013 is more likely but I’m definately hoping and gonna watch or pvr all the games this year
I have been saying the same thing all off season. Cecil is a #5 starter in a rotation that is bitterly deficient. After Romero and Morrow the jays have three #5 pitchers with Aalvarez lumped in only because of his rookie status. Cecil came into last year over weight and looking like he just laid on the couch all winter. When I seen him in spring training and heard he had lost 5-6 mph off his fastball it didn’t take a genius to see he put zero work in during the offseason and his 85 mph fastball was going to get crushed. He has no trade value right now and I the jays are going to run him out there every 5 starts all year cause he is a cheap option. He maybe a serviceable stop gap for part of the year ( No More! ) and unless he has made some miracle improvements in his fitness level I don’t see him pitching 200 innings despite the positive spin the jays PR team are trying to sell to fans which obviously some are buying into ( see last commenter ). As I have said all offseason not everyone is going to improve and you can’t be so foolish as to think everyone is going play at their maximum potential or above in the case of Cecil and everything is going to be awesome. Oh and wins are a terrible stat to go by ! Pitchers don’t score runs and the jays offense won the majority of those 15 wins not Cecil